Film Industry Executives Golden Rule – Total Gross is 3x Opening Box Office Receipts

Golden rule entrepreneurship

The film entertainment industry believes that the total gross theater earnings from a film can be determined by looking at the opening gross box office receipts. Industry executives use the rule of thumb that for every dollar earned on opening day, three dollars will be earned in total from box office receipts (i.e., Total Gross = 3 x Open Gross). This is why they invest in all that marketing prior to opening day.

I decided to take a look at this rule of thumb, so I created an R script that pulled the required data from Box Office Mojo (see below). I grabbed all 14K+ films from BOM, did a bit of data cleaning and formatting, then plotted the relationship between Opening Box Office Receipts and Total Gross Theater Earning. As it turns out, the executives are right, the 2.5% to 97.5% confidence range for the golden ratio is 3.13 and 3.19, respectively. As a correlative predictive model, it is significant (R^2=.8034).  

2013 09 01 22 27 18

2013 09 01 22 27 02






























R-SCRIPT (based on Tony Breyal Quick Scrape script)

2013 09 02 12 52 56



Categories: Case Study, R

Tags: ,

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: